Proceed to Phase 3 (data layer) with three explicit bias-correction me…

Decision

Proceed to Phase 3 (data layer) with three explicit bias-correction measures from the premortem + bias-detect pass: (1) Treat the $379.61/ mi ll i o n - M A R bi ll in g r a t e a s a PO I NT - I N - T I ME s na p s h o t, n o t a s t ab l eco n s t an t — C os tG u a r d Cl i e n t m u s t re - q u ery U S A G E_{H} I STOR Y p er in v oc a t i o n (n o t c a c h e a t ini t) an d e mi t a P ro m e t h e u s m e t r i c g 2_{r} a t e_{a} g e_{d} a ys t o d e t ec t s t a l er a t es > 60 d a ys; (2) Do NOTl e tt h e S A P - h e a v i es t - co nn ec t or a ss u m pt i o n d r i v e t h res h o l d t u nin g d u r in g s ha d o w — P ha se 7 c a l ib r a t i o nm u s t r u na cross A LL in t erce pt e d co nn ec t ors, n o t j u s tS A P / SF D C / G A 4, b ec a u se w or k l o a dd i s t r ib u t i o n c an s hi f t (e . g ., an e wS ha re P o in t or B i g Q u eryco nn ec t orco u l d o v er t ak e S A P); (3) H i s t or i c a lM A Rp ro x y (co n f i d e n ce = m e d i u m) i s akn o w n l o w er - b o u n d a pp ro x ima t i o n — w h e n t h e p ro x y v a l u e i s w i t hin 1.5 x o f t h e$ 500 BLOCK threshold, escalate confidence tracking by querying 24-month window instead of 12-month, and flag “proxy_uncertain” in UsageCostResult.tier_reason so AJ can adjudicate borderline cases.

Rationale

Reasoning chain established this session: add_thought #2 (confidence 0.95) captured Phase 1+2 empirical findings including the 2/6-tables-diverged scope remap and the $35 k /$ 26k/$229 cost projections. premortem_analysis surfaced 5 failure categories (Execution, Assumption, People, External, Design); highest-risk for this project = Assumption (rate stability, connector mix, proxy accuracy) and External (Fivetran schema evolution, network policy changes). detect_biases flagged anchoring_bias (“first information” — sticking with scope § 15 thresholds just because they were the first ones seen) and overconfidence_bias (“certainly” — claiming first BLOCK will certainly fire on SAP). The three course-corrections in this decision counter those biases directly: (1) counters anchoring by forcing rate-freshness awareness (point-in-time vs assumed-constant), (2) counters SAP-focus anchoring by requiring cross-connector calibration, (3) counters proxy-accuracy overconfidence by adding a borderline-escalation mechanism. Engineering safeguards applied BEFORE Phase 3 code is written — cheaper than post-hoc fixes.

Alternatives Rejected

Outcome

Pending

Second Brain

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Proceed to Phase 3 (data layer) with three explicit bias-correction me…

Proceed to Phase 3 (data layer) with three explicit bias-correction me…

Decision

Rationale

Alternatives Rejected

Outcome

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Proceed to Phase 3 (data layer) with three explicit bias-correction me…

Proceed to Phase 3 (data layer) with three explicit bias-correction me…

Decision

Rationale

Alternatives Rejected

Outcome

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