PRED: India-Pakistan full-scale war probability — 12% (±5%) within 12 months
Decision
Full-scale war: 12% (±5%). Frozen hostility: 52%. Limited strike exchange: 30%. Diplomatic thaw: 6%. The 12% is NOT static — it increases over time due to escalation ladder trend.
Rationale
Base rate: 0 full wars between nuclear powers in 81 years (1945-2026). Adjusted upward from 8% due to: (1) escalation ladder — each India-Pakistan crisis since 2016 more intense (surgical strikes → aerial dogfight → 88-hour ballistic missile exchange), (2) US mediation bandwidth consumed by Iran War, (3) deterrence survivorship bias (we only see cases where it held). Held down by: nuclear deterrence (strongest factor, tested in May 2025 at maximum intensity), Pakistan’s 8:1 economic disadvantage, proven US ceasefire brokering (4 days in May 2025). Cross-reference: Iran War prediction (frozen conflict 33%) shows US diplomatic bandwidth splitting.
Alternatives Rejected
Scenario A Frozen Hostility: 52% — 28-year pattern continues. Scenario B Limited Exchange: 30% — another Pahalgam-scale attack triggers Operation Sindoor 2.0. Scenario D Diplomatic Thaw: 6% — Dhaka handshake evolves into backchannel.
Outcome
Pending