PRED: 2026 Iran War outcome — frozen conflict 33%, settlement 28%, escalation 18%, regime collapse 17%

Decision

Primary: Frozen conflict by Q1 2027 (33%). Secondary: Negotiated settlement via China mediation by Oct 2026 (28%). Combined de-escalation probability: 61%.

Rationale

Evidence-based prediction using 8-phase Prediction Engine. 5 sub-questions decomposed, base rates from historical conflicts (Korean War, Israeli preemptive strikes, U.S.-Iran crises), evidence from IAEA, RAND, Chatham House, Foreign Policy, WaPo polls. ACH with 4 competing hypotheses scored against 5 evidence items. Bias detection: framing effect corrected. Devil’s advocate: addressed 4 counter-arguments. Key drivers: peace talks collapsed but normal in wars, U.S. domestic pressure (43% opposition), proxy network degraded, China mediation floor, Khamenei killed creating succession crisis, nuclear facilities damaged 5-10 year setback.

Alternatives Rejected

Scenario C Full Escalation: 18% — constrained by U.S. polls + proxy degradation. Scenario D Regime Collapse: 17% — succession crisis + blockade + popular discontent. Black Swan: 4%.

Outcome

Pending

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