Finding 2: RBI Governor’s Statement April 8, 2026 — Macro Outlook, Liquidity & Credit
Date: April 8, 2026
Source: Reserve Bank of India — Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s Statement
URL: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62515
Source Tier: S (Primary regulatory source — RBI.org.in)
Date Tier: T1 (Current week)
Growth Projections
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| GDP 2025-26 (SAE, base 2022-23) | 7.6% y-o-y |
| GDP 2026-27 Projection | 6.9% (Q1: 6.8%, Q2: 6.7%, Q3: 7.0%, Q4: 7.2%) |
| CPI Inflation 2026-27 Projection | 4.6% (Q1: 4.0%, Q2: 4.4%, Q3: 5.2%, Q4: 4.7%) |
| Core Inflation (ex-food & fuel) | 4.4% projected FY2026-27 |
| Core Inflation (ex-precious metals) | ~2.1% (Jan–Feb 2026) |
| Headline CPI Feb 2026 | 3.2% (up from 2.7% in Jan 2026) |
GDP downgrade rationale: West Asia conflict (US-Iran war) caused 70bps revision downward from FY2025-26 estimated 7.6%. Strait of Hormuz closure impacting energy supply and freight costs.
Liquidity & Credit Conditions
- System liquidity surplus: Average daily surplus ₹2.3 lakh crore since last MPC meeting (Feb 2026)
- WACR: Traded in lower half of the LAF corridor
- Bank credit growth: 14.3% y-o-y (vs 11.7% y-o-y a year ago) — broad-based acceleration
- Forex Reserves: USD 697.1 billion as of April 3, 2026 (~11 months import cover; 91.1% of external debt)
- External financing: Net FPI outflows of USD 16.5 billion in 2025-26; USD 5.4 billion outflows YTD 2026-27
Construction Sector Indicators (Feb 2026 data)
| Indicator | Growth |
|---|---|
| Cement production | +9.3% y-o-y |
| Steel consumption | +12.8% y-o-y |
| GST E-way bills | +17.2% in Q4 FY2025-26 |
| Motor vehicle retail sales | +22.2% in Q4 FY2025-26 |
| Two-wheeler sales | +23.2% Jan–Feb 2026 |
Real Estate Implications
- Strong cement/steel demand corroborates ongoing construction activity — positive for Mumbai/NCR real estate pipeline
- Credit growth at 14.3% y-o-y suggests home loan disbursals remain robust despite geopolitical headwinds
- Liquidity surplus ₹2.3 lakh crore → banks have capacity to lend at competitive rates; spreads may tighten
- FPI outflows and USD strengthening are near-term risks for developer cost of capital (ECB, REIT fundraising)
- GST rationalisation persisting impact — supporting consumption demand and construction sector activity
Source: Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s Statement on MPC Decisions, April 8, 2026 | PR 2026-2027/37